Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051304 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

CORRECTED AREA 14 HEADLINE

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 310 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 285 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WED NIGHT AS 994 MB. A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 230 NM EAST OF
SHEMYA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF ADAK WED NIGHT AS 989 MB.
A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-060200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  
CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.  PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-060200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.  
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-060200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...CENTER OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND DRIFTS WEST TO OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GENERALLY
MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR
WEAKER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. 5110M
CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED
AM..WEAKENS...AND COMES IN PHASE WITH MAIN TROUGH. RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. 5150M CENTER WEST
OF KAMCHATKA MOVES NEAR SHEMYA WED.

.SURFACE EAST...THE ETA/UKMET SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AND WILL USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. 970MB CENTER NEAR 49N 148W THIS MORNING WAS A COUPLE OF MBS
DEEPER THAN MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. FORECAST TRACK TAKES CENTER JUST
SE OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY WED AM WERE CENTER BECOMES QSTNRY. EXPECT A
WEAKER SECONDARY CENTER WILL LIKELY FORM TO NW OF PARENT LOW AND
ELONGATE THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. OCCLUDE FRONT MOVES TO
JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EARLY TUE AM.
THIS SHOULD ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS PEAK FOR COASTAL LOCALS. FRONT
MOVES INLAND TUE AND GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX SOME. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COASTS WILL START AS SNOW BUT BECOME
MIXED OR SHIFT TO RAIN TUE. COASTAL LOCALS AND SE EXPOSURES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

.SURFACE WEST...GFS MODEL IN GENERAL WILL BE USED FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO
BRISTOL BAY TUE AND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED AS
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE GULF SKIPS ACROSS THE RANGE. MID
980S LOW NEAR 47N 167E SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER 970S AS IT MOVES
TO SE OF KAMCHATKA TUE MORNING. CENTER BECOMES STACKED AFTER THIS AND
WEAKENS. SAT PICTURE INDICATES THE JET STREAM IS AROUND 50N OVER THE
NW PACIFIC. THIS WILL TEND TO STRETCH OUT FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST AS A TRIPLE POINT OR SERIES OF WAVES DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST MARINE FORECAST PACKAGES.

RMC APR 05