Gale Warning 455, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050708 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1110 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

UPDATED AREA 2B

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 972 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO
120 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND WEAKENS TO 990 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-051400-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1110 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT DIMISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051400-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WIND INCREASING TO N 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT... N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051400-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051400-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051400-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051400-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051400-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051400-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051400-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...CENTER OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND DRIFTS WEST TO OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GENERALLY
MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR
WEAKER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. 5110M
CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED
AM..WEAKENS...AND COMES IN PHASE WITH MAIN TROUGH. RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. 5150M CENTER WEST
OF KAMCHATKA MOVES NEAR SHEMYA WED.

.SURFACE EAST...THE ETA/UKMET SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AND WILL USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. 970MB CENTER NEAR 49N 148W THIS MORNING WAS A COUPLE OF MBS
DEEPER THAN MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. FORECAST TRACK TAKES CENTER JUST
SE OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY WED AM WERE CENTER BECOMES QSTNRY. EXPECT A
WEAKER SECONDARY CENTER WILL LIKELY FORM TO NW OF PARENT LOW AND
ELONGATE THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. OCCLUDE FRONT MOVES TO
JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EARLY TUE AM.
THIS SHOULD ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS PEAK FOR COASTAL LOCALS. FRONT
MOVES INLAND TUE AND GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX SOME. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COASTS WILL START AS SNOW BUT BECOME
MIXED OR SHIFT TO RAIN TUE. COASTAL LOCALS AND SE EXPOSURES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

.SURFACE WEST...GFS MODEL IN GENERAL WILL BE USED FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO
BRISTOL BAY TUE AND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED AS
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE GULF SKIPS ACROSS THE RANGE. MID
980S LOW NEAR 47N 167E SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER 970S AS IT MOVES
TO SE OF KAMCHATKA TUE MORNING. CENTER BECOMES STACKED AFTER THIS AND
WEAKENS. SAT PICTURE INDICATES THE JET STREAM IS AROUND 50N OVER THE
NW PACIFIC. THIS WILL TEND TO STRETCH OUT FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST AS A TRIPLE POINT OR SERIES OF WAVES DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST MARINE FORECAST PACKAGES.

RMC APR 05