Small Craft Advisory 936, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST SUN NOV 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND TOWARD A SOLUTION
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM. GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION THOUGH THERE ARE
STILL SOME DOUBT THE ANY ONE MODEL HAS THE RIGHT SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS ARE MODERATE TO LOW.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WEST INTO THE NORTHERN SEA OF OHKOTSK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE AND WEAKEN
SOUTH OF ADAK TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OUT OF AN
STRONG LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE
LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS DEVELOPING CONFIGURATION WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND WEATHER BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MODERATE LOW 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT TUESDAY EVENING. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN WEAK AS IT MOVED INLAND
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY
AND MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL INCREASE
THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 132, 170, 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...

NM NOV 05