Gale Warning 933, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 150035
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTH OF THE ADAK WILL MOVE TO 80 NM EAST OF SAND
POINT AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-151500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-151500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT TOWARD MORNING. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-151500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-151500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST SUN NOV 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND TOWARD A SOLUTION
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM. GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION THOUGH THERE ARE
STILL SOME DOUBT THE ANY ONE MODEL HAS THE RIGHT SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS ARE MODERATE TO LOW.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT WEST INTO THE NORTHERN SEA OF OHKOTSK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE AND WEAKEN
SOUTH OF ADAK TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OUT OF AN
STRONG LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE
LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS DEVELOPING CONFIGURATION WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND WEATHER BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MODERATE LOW 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT TUESDAY EVENING. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN WEAK AS IT MOVED INLAND
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SWING
NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY
AND MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY.

COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL INCREASE
THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 132, 170, 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...

NM NOV 05