Small Craft Advisory 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
1220 PM AST THU JAN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

GFS AND ETA MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER
ON INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK.  GFS KEEPS A
DEEPER PRESSURE ON THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY.  THIS IS
IN LINE WITH UKMET AND ECMWF SO WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION ON THIS
LOW.

UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA KEEPING UPPER LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC.  THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC..AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND.  HOWEVER THAT
CHANGES BY SATURDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BIG
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND BRISTOL BAY.  GALES
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW FROM KODIAK TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SO EXPECT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND..COPPER
RIVER DELTA..AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BUT VERY DRY.  PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT BUT THATS
ABOUT IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...12A 12B 13A 13B.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...4 6A 8 14.

JWP JAN 05