Gale Warning 117, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 290010
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 956 MB LOW 350NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 250NM SOUTH OF
COLD BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 971 MB.
$$

PKZ150-291500-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-291500-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-291500-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-291500-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
$$

PKZ180-291500-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ170-291500-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
$$

PKZ171-291500-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
$$

PKZ172-291500-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

PKZ175-291500-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
$$

PKZ176-291500-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
$$

PKZ185-291500-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-291500-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - MESSY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED N OF BANKS ISLAND AT 12Z WITH
A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH E-W OVER THE ALASKA CENTRAL INTERIOR.
N OF THAT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N SLOPE. THERE IS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SW COAST WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 53N
145W OVER A 990 MB SURFACE COMPLEX. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS OUT OVER THE
GULF BUT NOT PAST KODIAK. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MAJOR UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED AROUND 200 MILES S OF AMCHITKA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS A 962 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 44N 165W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET AT
250 MB 12Z IS NEARLY CONTINUOUS FROM N AFRICA TO S CALIFORNIA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOO MANY FEATURES TO LIST.

EAST FORECASTS - NUMEROUS WEAK AND SECONDARY LOW CENTERS MAKE MODEL
INITIALIZATION TRICKY THIS MORNING. BY SATELLITE IMAGERY ITS PROBABLY
NOT A BAD IDEA TO HAVE ONE SURFACE LOW DIE OUT OFF CORDOVA THIS
EVENING WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES PERSISTING. IT TAKES ALL
THE WAY UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY TO GET A SHORTWAVE ONTO THE N GULF COAST BUT

IT LOOKS REASONABLE. THE REAL QUESTION IS THE TIMING BECAUSE THE NCEP
MODELS BACK OFF EACH DAY BY ONE DAY. THE LATEST SCENARIO IS TO HAVE A
TRIPLE POINT DEVELOP AROUND 50N 145W 12Z SUN THAT MOVES UP INTO THE
GULF AND DEVELOPS. IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS-190 VERBATIM
YOUD HAVE TO GO WITH A SNOWSTORM IN S CENTRAL STARTING MONDAY BUT
WEVE SEEN WAY TOO MANY MODEL FLIP FLOPS THIS YEAR TO GO FOR IT YET.

WEST FORECASTS - OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SW ALASKA AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES
FOR THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING. IT TAKES A WHILE FOR THE MAIN LOW TO
MOVE UP TO 50N 162W AS PER ALL MODELS BY 12Z SAT. THAT OUGHT TO BRING
SOME PRECIP TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BUT DOESNT BREAK THE OFFSHORE
FLOW FOR THE SW COAST WELL INTO THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 135 181 191. DENSE FOG ADVSRY 161.
MARINE...GALES 3AC 5B 6AB 12A. HVY FRZ SPRAY 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC JAN 05