Gale Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 290019
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT FROM A 962 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH. A 970 MB
LOW WILL BE 300 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-291500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-291500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
1220 PM AST THU JAN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

GFS AND ETA MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER
ON INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK.  GFS KEEPS A
DEEPER PRESSURE ON THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY.  THIS IS
IN LINE WITH UKMET AND ECMWF SO WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION ON THIS
LOW.

UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER CHUKOTSK PENINSULA KEEPING UPPER LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC.  THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC..AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND.  HOWEVER THAT
CHANGES BY SATURDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BIG
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND BRISTOL BAY.  GALES
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW FROM KODIAK TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SO EXPECT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND..COPPER
RIVER DELTA..AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BUT VERY DRY.  PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT BUT THATS
ABOUT IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...12A 12B 13A 13B.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...4 6A 8 14.

JWP JAN 05