Small Craft Advisory 835, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1215 PM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF AT 19Z AT 961 MB.
THERE AREA PLENTY OF REPORTS OF 50+ KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW
WITH A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE SW
COAST WHICH HAS VERIFIED ESPECIALLY AT KIPNUK (SEE FAA WEB CAM).
MCHUGH CREEK HAS REPORTED 70 MPH NEAR ANCHORAGE AND THE PRECIP
PATTERN ON RADAR PRETTY WELL MATCHES THE RH FIELDS ON THE RADAR.
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THIS MORNING AND STRONG WESTERLIES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE BERING
SEA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND COOK INLET AS A STRONG JET PUSHES THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE
FRONT DRIVES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE WHOLE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLIES. LOOK FOR THE JET TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ON A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL END UP NEAR SHELIKOF STRAIT WED NIGHT WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CHINOOK WIND FOR ANCHORAGE THEN. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE THE GFS-190 DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT OFF THE SHELIKOF
LOW WITH MOVES AROUND THE GULF DOWN INTO THE 950S INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THE MODELS GETTING THAT ONE CORRECT AT THIS
POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ZONE 155 AND 161.
MARINE...STORM 155 160 179 180 185.
         GALES 120 130 132 150 165 170 171 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC OCT 05