Small Craft Advisory 832, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY TODAY IS AN INTENSE STORM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARD NUNIVAK ISLAND ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST. FIRST - THE WINDS AROUND THIS STORM ARE LIKELY TO PUSH WATER
LEVELS UP TO FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE MONDAY. NEXT - AS THIS LOW CENTER CROSSES 60N A PRETTY STRONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WIND WILL DEVELOP FOR EAST
ANCHORAGE. THIRD - THIS IS A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH A GOOD SUBTROPICAL
CONNECTION THAT WILL CAUSE A LOT OF RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR TWO HUGE
FORECAST AREAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND COOK INLET ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG JET PUSHES THIS
SYSTEM QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE FRONT DRIVES ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT THE WHOLE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES. LOOK FOR THE JET TO ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT ON A STRONG LOW WHICH WILL END UP THROUGH BRISTOL BAY WED
NIGHT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CHINOOK WIND FOR ANCHORAGE
THEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ZONES 155 AND 161.
MARINE...STORM 160 172 179 180 185.
         GALES 120 130 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC OCT 05