Small Craft Advisory 800, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...LAST RUN OF GFS/ETA ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL AGAIN TODAY
WITH JUST THE USUAL VARIATIONS BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON FRI
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. AT THIS TIME PREFER
THE MORE WESTERN POSITION OF THE GFS AT 60 HRS.

LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES THIS EVENING AS THE
SOUTHERN 2 CENTERS MERGE AND MOVE INTO THE GULF ON THU. WINDS ALONG
NORTH GULF COAST ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER STORM FORCE AND WILL DROP
OFF MARKEDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND AND
WEAKENS.

SNOWFALL LEVELS IN COPPER RIVER BASIN SHOULD EDGE UP TO 2000 OR MORE
FT WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
MOST.

NEXT LOW BRINGS GALES BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING WITH
BLUSTERY WET CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE PRIBILOF AND FOX ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. 987 MB LOW CENTER MOVES TO JUST WEST OF
ST PAUL ISLAND THU EVENING PRODUCING WESTERLY GALES ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE TO KODIAK
ISLAND LATE IN THE EVENING BUT SURFACE WINDS WONT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
AND NOTHING HIGHER THAN 25 KTS WILL BLOW IN THE MARINE AREAS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PLACE A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROF AXIS ALONG
155W OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IF THE MODELS
ARE RIGHT A MODERATE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT SPREADS MAX GALES BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BERING LATE SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM ONE
RUN TO THE NEXT BEYOND DAY 5 (SUNDAY).

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155..170..172..175..176.

PERCY OCT 05