Gale Warning 802, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060405 AAA
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

UPDATED AREAS 121 125 130 132 138 140 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 115 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND
WEAKEN TO 996 MB FRI MORNING. ANOTHER 991 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO KODIAK
ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-061400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-061400-
RESURRECTION BAY
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-061400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-061400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-061400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-061400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SHOWERS.  
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-061400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-061400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-061400-
KACHEMAK BAY
800 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...LAST RUN OF GFS/ETA ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL AGAIN TODAY
WITH JUST THE USUAL VARIATIONS BUT THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON FRI
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. AT THIS TIME PREFER
THE MORE WESTERN POSITION OF THE GFS AT 60 HRS.

LOW NEAR KODIAK DRIFTS EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES THIS EVENING AS THE
SOUTHERN 2 CENTERS MERGE AND MOVE INTO THE GULF ON THU. WINDS ALONG
NORTH GULF COAST ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER STORM FORCE AND WILL DROP
OFF MARKEDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND AND
WEAKENS.

SNOWFALL LEVELS IN COPPER RIVER BASIN SHOULD EDGE UP TO 2000 OR MORE
FT WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
MOST.

NEXT LOW BRINGS GALES BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING WITH
BLUSTERY WET CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE PRIBILOF AND FOX ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. 987 MB LOW CENTER MOVES TO JUST WEST OF
ST PAUL ISLAND THU EVENING PRODUCING WESTERLY GALES ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE TO KODIAK
ISLAND LATE IN THE EVENING BUT SURFACE WINDS WONT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
AND NOTHING HIGHER THAN 25 KTS WILL BLOW IN THE MARINE AREAS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PLACE A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROF AXIS ALONG
155W OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IF THE MODELS
ARE RIGHT A MODERATE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT SPREADS MAX GALES BACK TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BERING LATE SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM ONE
RUN TO THE NEXT BEYOND DAY 5 (SUNDAY).

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155..170..172..175..176.

PERCY OCT 05