Small Craft Advisory 798, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM ADT TUE OCT 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...AGAIN MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (72 HRS)
WITH JUST THE USUAL VARIATIONS. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND AHEAD OF GULF FRONT IS NOW OVER AS
A MORE STRATIFORM RAIN PATTERN TAKES HOLD ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE 990 MB LOW ABOUT 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK IS NOW PULLING
NORTH NORTHWEST AND WILL BE OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY MID MORNING WED.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY AND WET WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
WED EVENING WITH HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
INLAND. AIRMASS MOVING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1-2K WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION THAT FINDS ITS WAY
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER AREAS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THE SAME IS
TRUE FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY ZONE NORTH OF CHULITNA AND WEST TOWARD
THE RANGE TO HAYES RIVER AND PUNTILLA.

ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS MINIMUM STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DROP BACK UNDER 30
KTS WED MORNING. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF IN THE KODIAK ISLAND
ZONES AS LOW CENTER MOVES IN AND FLATTENS THE GRADIENT. THAT PATTERN
WILL BE GOOD FOR WIDESPREAD IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS RAIN AND FOG.

OUT WEST THE 978 LOW BETWEEN THE PRIBILOF AND FOX ISLANDS IS DOING
WHAT ITS SUPPOSE TO. 50+ MPH WINDS AT ATKA SHOULD WORK INTO DUTCH
HARBOR BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WIND GUSTS SHOULDNT EXCEED 45 MPH AT COLD
BAY SINCE THE STORM WILL TRACK RIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL GIVE A
RELATIVE BREAK TO ADAK AND ATKA WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT
SPREADS BLUSTERY WET CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS AREAS WEST OF AMCHITKA.
THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOFS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
GALE FORCE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
RAIN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THU EVENING.
MEIDIUM RANGE MODELS STALL THIS LOW OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AS A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. IF THE MODELS ARE
RIGHT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL HIT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING AGAIN
SAT NIGHT AS THE MAINLAND AREAS SEE A DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN..BUT
STILL WET ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM AREAS 120..130..172..175
GALE AREAS 125..132..140..155..170..176..179

PERCY OCT 05