Small Craft Advisory 612, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT AUG 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG 160W TODAY
AND SHOWS STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO IT AT 500 MB FOR SOME REAL MONDO
HEIGHTS. THE UPPER LOW IS NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR AT 12Z OVER A 986
MB SURFACE LOW. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WAS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 180 AND
CAN BE SEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING AS PER THE SATELLITE LOOPER. A WAVE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM NEAR KISKA BELOW 1000 MB AT 18Z. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LOTS OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. A WESTERLY JET AROUND 120 KT AT 250 MB IS OFF
SAKHALIN ISLAND OUT TO AROUND 45N 175E.

AER FORECASTS - HIGH DRY GOODBYE. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS FORECASTED BY
ANY MODEL ARE INTO THE 580S WHICH MEANS EXPECT SOME PRETTY GOOD
MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPS PLUS LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER. THERE IS
ONE MINOR DANGER OF SUCH A FORECAST BEING INCORRECT - KEEP AN EYE ON
THE MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE SURGE
DUE TO HOT TEMPS INLAND...THEN WE COULD GET A MARINE PUSH WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS FROM THE GULF AIR. THE BEST BET HOWEVER
IS STILL FOR MONDO SUMMERTIME BEACH-LIKE WEATHER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ALU FORECASTS - WELL, THE BLOCK IS A BLOCK, BUT THE HIGH WILL NOT
PREVENT FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER FROM GETTING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE K-DELTA ZONE. WE ALSO EXPECT THAT THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KISKA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE LOW LEVEL GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES IN THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 185 187 195.
MARINE...GALES 170 171 172 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC AUG 05