Small Craft Advisory 609, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI AUG 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED TO 165W AT 500 MB. THIS
PROGRESSION HAS NOT KICKED OUT THE UPPER LOW FROM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THIS MORNING...BUT IS FILLING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY AND WILL KICK
IT OUT EAST TONIGHT. ALSO A 988 MB LOW IS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST NEAR 58N 175E AT 12Z AND IS MOVING NORTH AS PER THE SATELLITE
LOOPER. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 180 AT 18Z.
A WARM FRONTAL BAND HAS BRUSHED THE WEST COAST NORTH OF BETHEL AND
SOME RAIN THERE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OF
KODIAK ISLAND WHICH DRIVES A SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF AROUND 100 KT AT
250 MB INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

AER FORECASTS - THE BIG PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH BUILDING ALONG
160W THROUGH 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT EAST AS PER ALL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRYING WARMING AND MORE SUNSHINE.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1030 MB
WILL BE S OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH WILL YIELD A MARINE LAYER AND
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO COOK INLET.
LOOK FOR REALLY STABLE AIR IN THIS ONE WITH CONVECTION ALMOST
COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER MOVES OVER TALKEETNA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ALU FORECASTS- AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST THIS OPENS THAT WAY FOR
THE MAIN FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY SUN MORNING...BUT
THEN IT STALLS DUE TO AN EFFECTIVE BLOCK INLAND. A SECONDARY LOW WILL
DEVELOP TO 995 MB OVER KISKA 12Z SUN WITH ITS MAIN FRONT REMAINING
WEST OF 170W THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BUT ALSO WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS FAR EAST AS 160W BY 00Z TUE.
LOOK FOR MORE STABLE AIR INLAND WITH THE UPPER HIGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 187 191 195.
MARINE...GALES 172 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC AUG 05