Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 AM AST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
FORECAST A BIT STRONGER TROUGH WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  THESE
MODELS...THE ETA AND MESO ETA...APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THEN ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.  THIS SOLUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE AND IS PREFERRED AS IT EXPLAINS THE SNOW SPREADING NORTH
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE RICH TRAJECTORY
AT LOW LEVELS OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

EAST OF THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW IS OVERRUNNING
A DEEP LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER
COOK INLET.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN END FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
EXPECT RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY...KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET
WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PKZ140 180 185
         GALE    PKZ150 155 170 172 175 176 180 185 410

RHH JAN 05