Gale Warning 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 150332 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

UPDATE TO AREAS 2B1,2C,AND 3A.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
630 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
630 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
630 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...WIND NE 15 KT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND NE 30 KT CLAM GULCH
SOUTH. SEAS 4 FT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND 9 FT CLAM GULCH SOUTH. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...WIND NE 20 KT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND NE 35 KT CLAM GULCH
SOUTH. SEAS 5 FT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND 11 FT CLAM GULCH SOUTH.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...WIND NE 20 KT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND NE 30 KT CLAM
GULCH SOUTH. SEAS 5 FT NORTH OF CLAM GULCH AND 11 FT CLAM GULCH
SOUTH. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 151305
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER 1040 MB HIGH CELL EARLY MON. A SERIES OF MODERATE
LOWS WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STORM FORCE
LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 966 MB NEAR 300 NM S OF SAND POINT EARLY MON
MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-160300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W OF CAPE HINCHINBROOK...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. E OF CAPE
HINCHINBROOK...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-160300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-160300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-160300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT TO MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-160300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR AUGUSTINE ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR AUGUSTINE ISLAND.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-160300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-160300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-160300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-160300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ETA INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER YUKON
TERRITORY KEEPING IT STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS AND HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTH
GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON LARGE COMPLEX
NORTH PACIFIC LOW UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT GFS KEEPS PACIFIC
LOW MUCH DEEPER THAN ETA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE AT 72 HOURS. THIS CONFLICT WITH THE ETA OUTPUT AT THE SAME
TIME WHICH PLACES THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WITH A DEEPER PRESSURE.
THEREFORE WOULD RECOMMEND GOING WITH ETA THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN GO
WITH GFS (OR UKMET/ECMWF) WHICH HANDLES THE PACIFIC LOW BETTER.

UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA..SOUTHWEST ALASKA..AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LOW IN NORTH PACIFIC AND
DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND UPPER RIDGE BRINGING SNOW
TO SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTH ADDS LIFT TO
MOIST AIR. THIS..COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER GULF OF
ALASKA AND NORTH PACIFIC..WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT TO GALE OVER MOST
MARINE ZONES OVER THE AOR.

TERMINALS CONTINUE TO REFLECT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS
SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
THE WINDS AT 2000 FEET ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KNOTS. WILL
KEEP THE SHEAR IN THE TERMINALS UNTIL THE UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE IN
LINE (NO DIRECTIONAL WITH STEADY INCREASE WITH HEIGHT) WITH SURFACE
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 3A 3C 4 AND ALL WESTERN ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JWP JAN 05