Small Craft Advisory 324, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT WED APR 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND AND OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA SQUEEZED
IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. AS THE LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE IS PUSHED INLAND AND OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE ALEUTIAN LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 50N 155W THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 45N
170E. THIS LOW WILL HELP THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.
RIDGE AT THIS TIME IS OVER THE BERING SEA EXTENDING OVER THE MAINLAND
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS
BUILDS AS THE WESTERN LOW SLOWS FRIDAY. THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY AS THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW SLOWS EVEN FURTHER. IN ADDITION...A POLAR LOW STARTS TO
MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST FRIDAY AND DROP INTO NORTON SOUND AREA
SATURDAY. THE POLAR LOW THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SUNDAY
DEVELOPING A TROUGH ALONG 165W WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF EXTENDING INTO THE YUKON.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN NEAR ADAK THIS MORNING
WITH A FRONT EXTENDED OUT INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE MAIN LOW TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 50N 145W. HOW THESE TWO
LOWS PROGRESS THURSDAY IS THE QUESTION. THE NAM WANTS TO DISSIPATE
THE PARENT LOW AND CONTINUE THE FRONTAL LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE PARENT
LOW STRONGER LONGER WITH THE FRONTAL LOW EVENTUALLY TAKING OVER BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND. LEANING AT THIS TIME
MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS DURING THE TRANSITION PHASE OF
THE FORECAST THURSDAY. THIS LOW WEAKENS A BIT AND THEN EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
AND BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 45N
165E. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO 45N 175W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR LOW SYNCS UP WITH THIS
NORTH PACIFIC LOW. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO RIDE NORTH ALONG THE JET NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY
LATE SUNDAY FINALLY BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA.

OVERALL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO REMAIN DRY WITH RAIN
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. GALE FORCE
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE SECOND LOW INTO ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN APR 05