Brisk Wind Advisory 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU APR 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM IN THIS SECTION OF THE WORLD IS
IN A ZONAL PATTERN LEAVING JAPAN AND HEADING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TWO LOWS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN ALASKA AREA. THE FIRST ONE IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
SOME AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
SECOND LOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST
OF ATTU. IS WILL RIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM DUE EAST
AND END UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE... A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR HAS AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS CONNECTED TO THE UPPER LOW BUT WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. TWO NEW LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
TODAY WITH THE EASTERNMOST ONE BECOMING THE DOMINANT ONE THAT MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A 975 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE
EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS IT PASSES
SOUTH OF THEM.

THE FOUR MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SCENARIO IS THE SAME IN ALL FOUR MODELS WITH THE
MAIN LOW DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY
THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 5B 13A 13B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ APR 05