Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 151130
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON.
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SITKA WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKA FRI NIGHT AT 993 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ120-160200-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-160200-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160200-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-160200-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160200-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160200-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-160200-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-160200-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-160200-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI APR 15 2005

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU APR 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM IN THIS SECTION OF THE WORLD IS
IN A ZONAL PATTERN LEAVING JAPAN AND HEADING NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TWO LOWS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN ALASKA AREA. THE FIRST ONE IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
SOME AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
SECOND LOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST
OF ATTU. IS WILL RIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM DUE EAST
AND END UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE... A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR HAS AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS CONNECTED TO THE UPPER LOW BUT WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY. TWO NEW LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
TODAY WITH THE EASTERNMOST ONE BECOMING THE DOMINANT ONE THAT MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A 975 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE
EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS IT PASSES
SOUTH OF THEM.

THE FOUR MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEATHER FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SCENARIO IS THE SAME IN ALL FOUR MODELS WITH THE
MAIN LOW DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY
THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 5B 13A 13B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ APR 05