Small Craft Advisory 314, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT..TOWARD QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL INFLUENCE EVEN MORE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...AND PROMOTE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES. AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER HEADS SOUTH... A WEAK LOW NEAR QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLAND THIS WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
TONIGHT AND FORM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND PANHANDLE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT A CONCERN AS
AGAIN... THE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER... THE
ALIGNMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO BRISTOL BAY... WILL INCREASE THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLAND WATERS TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO THE GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS RIDGE IS A SLOWLY PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT... WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN
AND OR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOMORROW AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS SYSTEM IS THE
MAIN POINT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT PAST THE 72 HOUR MARK.  CURRENTLY
ALL MODELS AGREE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
PARENT CENTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE DISAGREEMENT COMES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RAPIDLY PROGRESS EAST TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL TAKES THE TYPICALLY FASTER TRACK...
WHILE THE NAM RETARDS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
WEAKER LOW CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT.

IF - AND BIG IF - THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT... THE BERING LOW WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS COULD
BRING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND EVENT TO SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THURSDAY.
MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT THIS FAR OUT... AS IT APPEARS
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME LOCKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ON THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 3A 5A 12B 13A 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMF APR 05