Gale Warning 466, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 110145 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
550 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

UPDATE ZONE 150

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 425 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE
NEAR SHEMYA MON MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A 995 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA MON NIGHT WILL MOVE NEAR SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-111400-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
550 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT FROM BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111400-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111400-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-111400-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111400-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ170-111400-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111400-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111400-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF ATKA...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. ATKA
EAST...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111400-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111400-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111400-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ179-111400-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS..
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 111133
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE TO 280 NM WEST OF SHEMYA TUE
MORNING AT 988 MB AND TO 280 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA TUE NIGHT AT 997 MB.
$$

PKZ150-120200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES EAST OF
SAND POINT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-120200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-120200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE WIND 15 KT LATE THIS
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.   
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT.   

$$

PKZ179-120200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON APR 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.  
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT..TOWARD QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL INFLUENCE EVEN MORE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...AND PROMOTE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES. AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CENTER HEADS SOUTH... A WEAK LOW NEAR QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLAND THIS WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
TONIGHT AND FORM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND PANHANDLE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT A CONCERN AS
AGAIN... THE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER... THE
ALIGNMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TO BRISTOL BAY... WILL INCREASE THE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLAND WATERS TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
TOMORROW. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO THE GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS RIDGE IS A SLOWLY PROGRESSING WARM
FRONT... WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN
AND OR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOMORROW AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS SYSTEM IS THE
MAIN POINT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT PAST THE 72 HOUR MARK.  CURRENTLY
ALL MODELS AGREE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
PARENT CENTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE DISAGREEMENT COMES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RAPIDLY PROGRESS EAST TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL TAKES THE TYPICALLY FASTER TRACK...
WHILE THE NAM RETARDS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
WEAKER LOW CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT.

IF - AND BIG IF - THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT... THE BERING LOW WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS COULD
BRING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND EVENT TO SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THURSDAY.
MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT THIS FAR OUT... AS IT APPEARS
THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME LOCKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ON THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 3A 5A 12B 13A 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMF APR 05