Gale Warning 465, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 102338
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 425 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE
NEAR SHEMYA MON MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A 995 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA MON NIGHT WILL MOVE NEAR SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-111400-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111400-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111400-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-111400-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111400-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ170-111400-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111400-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111400-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF ATKA...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. ATKA
EAST...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111400-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111400-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111400-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ179-111400-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS..
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN APR 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.ANALYSIS...A 991 MB VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SPINNING IN THE GULF NEAR 57N 146W WITH WEAKENING OCCLUSION ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST. MIDDLETON RADAR SHOWS MAJORITY OF SHOWERS
REMAINING JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAVE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 20S INLAND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW LOCATED AT 60N 174W IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG COASTAL AREAS ARE BEING GENERATED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
FINALLY AN IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SOUTHWARD. A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SHEMYA
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE A LARGE CLOSED LOW SITS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE SMALL CRAFT CATEGORY AT THE MOMENT AND ON
THE WAY UP.

.MODEL ANALYSIS...GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE ALL VERIFYING WELL AT 06Z.
ALL THREE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING. PREFER THE
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ETA WHICH IS DEALING WITH
FEATURES NEAR ITS DOMAIN BOUNDARY.

.SHORT-TERM FORECASTS...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BERING WILL OPEN UP
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF
AND DRAG IT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ALONG
THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN END TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REACH THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 50 INLAND.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 30S BEFORE WARMING BACK UP
MID WEEK. OVER THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN AKPENN
MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD
TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN BERING TO THE EASTERN BERING.
AS FOR THE ALEUTIANS/WESTERN BERING A SERIES OF LOWS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS (WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST). A FEW
FRONTS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH AN EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE BERING. EXPECT GALE
FORCE WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A NEW LOW COMING OUT OF ASIA LATER TODAY
WILL PICK UP REMNANTS OF CURRENT LOWS BY TUESDAY CREATING ONE LARGE
LOW. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.

.EXTENDED FORECASTS...HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN FLUX
AS UP TO TEN CUT-OFF LOWS WANDER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. GFS HAS
EXTREMELY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEYOND 3 DAYS. THEREFORE HAVE
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS EXTENDED FORECASTS. A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS IT MOVES EASTWARD YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF MOVES OUT OF ASIA. THE
TRACK OF THESE LOWS ALONG ABOUT 54N WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
WITH ONLY WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERNS EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING AREA 5A 12B 13AB.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING AREA 15.

SEB APR 05