Small Craft Advisory 296, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT TUE APR 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE.

LOW COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. EAST STORMS OVER THE NORTH GULF SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOME. EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP GENERAL RAIN
SHADOW TO LEE OF MOUNTAINS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE BRUNT OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING ALONG THE COASTS AND EAST/SE EXPOSURES. A WARM
TONGUE EVIDENT AT 850MB EXTENDS FROM YAKUTAT TO OVER THE KENAI PEN.
EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DRAW THIS AIR WEST. WEAKENING GULF
OCCLUSION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/BRISTOL BAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND BRING IN SOME
SNOW. INITIAL THOUGHT IS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.
WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DELTA LATE
WED. FRONT

970S MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING SHOULD BE STACKED
WITH UPPER CENTER AND WEAKENING. EXPECT SECONDARY CENTER FORMING
ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT TO BECOME THE DOMINATE CENTER AS IT MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN THE LOWER 980S WED. STRONG WESTERLY
JET..EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY AROUND 50N SHOULD CARRY PORTION OF FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN RAPIDLY EAST AND STRETCH FRONTAL ZONE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 05