Gale Warning 456, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT MON APR 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500MB...CENTER OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND DRIFTS WEST TO OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GENERALLY
MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR
WEAKER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. 5110M
CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED
AM..WEAKENS...AND COMES IN PHASE WITH MAIN TROUGH. RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. 5150M CENTER WEST
OF KAMCHATKA MOVES NEAR SHEMYA WED.

.SURFACE EAST...THE ETA/UKMET SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AND WILL USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. 970MB CENTER NEAR 49N 148W THIS MORNING WAS A COUPLE OF MBS
DEEPER THAN MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. FORECAST TRACK TAKES CENTER JUST
SE OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY WED AM WERE CENTER BECOMES QSTNRY. EXPECT A
WEAKER SECONDARY CENTER WILL LIKELY FORM TO NW OF PARENT LOW AND
ELONGATE THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. OCCLUDE FRONT MOVES TO
JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST EARLY TUE AM.
THIS SHOULD ABOUT THE TIME THE WINDS PEAK FOR COASTAL LOCALS. FRONT
MOVES INLAND TUE AND GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX SOME. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COASTS WILL START AS SNOW BUT BECOME
MIXED OR SHIFT TO RAIN TUE. COASTAL LOCALS AND SE EXPOSURES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

.SURFACE WEST...GFS MODEL IN GENERAL WILL BE USED FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO
BRISTOL BAY TUE AND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED AS
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE GULF SKIPS ACROSS THE RANGE. MID
980S LOW NEAR 47N 167E SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER 970S AS IT MOVES
TO SE OF KAMCHATKA TUE MORNING. CENTER BECOMES STACKED AFTER THIS AND
WEAKENS. SAT PICTURE INDICATES THE JET STREAM IS AROUND 50N OVER THE
NW PACIFIC. THIS WILL TEND TO STRETCH OUT FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST AS A TRIPLE POINT OR SERIES OF WAVES DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE LATEST MARINE FORECAST PACKAGES.

RMC APR 05