Small Craft Advisory 209, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE MAR 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.UPPER AIR...
THE MILD TREND CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND MAINLAND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST INTO B.C. WITH A TROUGH THROUGH THE AK WEST COAST AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WHILE
THE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH FETCH PROGRESSING DIRECTLY INTO THE CAPE
SUCKLING AREA FROM APPROXIMATELY 24N LATITUDE. OUR NEXT SURFACE
FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL INTENSIFY IN THE UPPER LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
JET AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
.EAST DOMAIN... THE OLD GULF OF ALASKA LOW HAS TRACKED WEST TODAY
WITH SEVERAL RESULTANT RESIDUAL LOWS IN A NE TO SW LINE FROM KODIAK
ISLAND TO SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS
WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS
AFTERNOON... HOWEVER EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SWINGS WEST
AND THE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARILY RAIN PERSISTS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MIXED
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO
THE WARM TEMPERATURES. WINDWARD PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT GULF STORM MOVES INTO THE NORTH
GULF. NCEP MODELS ARE FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONGEST MARINE
WINDS WILL BE IN THE JUNEAU FORECAST AREA... HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE IN SOUTHCENTRAL. PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
THEN THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT NCEP
MODELS AGREE THE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.WEST DOMAIN... THE ARCTIC FRONT APPEARS TO LIE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TODAY. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE VALLEY
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN BRISTOL BAY...ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. PRIMARILY SNOW SHOWERS ARE FALLING
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. THE OLD GULF PARENT
LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST WITH SEVERAL SMALLER CENTERS
ROTATING AROUND.  ONE SUCH LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY MORNING INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SPREADING TO THE WESTERN CAPES OF
BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 14
         GALE WARNINGS 3ABC 4 5AB 6A
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMF MAR 05