Small Craft Advisory 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH ANOTHER OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING SEA. CLOSED UPPER LOWS ARE FOUND OVER
KAMCHATKA AND AT 45N 145W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SATPIX SHOWING AN EMBEDDED LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS TO ELONGATE ALONG MUCH OF THE CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING FOLLOW THE
GFS SOLUTION WITH MESOETA INFLUENCE.

IN THE WEST...THE ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE ALEUTIANS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BERING HIGH...WILL BRING EAST GALES TO THE
BERING AND PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY WED...WITH WEST WINDS
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH DURING
THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS...BUT THE HIGH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY. ON
WED MODELS ARE A BIT SLOPPY...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST WED AND MERGES WITH A FAST MOVING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WED
NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THE INTERIOR STAYS COLD AND DRY WHILE
SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST ALONG THE CHAIN AND AKPEN.

IN THE EAST...THE LAST INCURSION OF MOISTURE WILL BE TODAY AS THE
EMBEDDED LOW MOVES INLAND NEAR CORDOVA. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER
TODAY ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TONIGHT...LEAVING AMOUNT OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND NIGHTTIME FOG AS THE PRESSING QUESTIONS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE INTO WED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH
THAT PERIOD AS WELL. AS THE ALEUTIAN TROUGH SLIDE EAST ON WED IT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COAST WED NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MERGING SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES SOUTH OF COLD BAY
ON THU. IT MOVES NORTH AND BRINGS GALES AND SNOW TO THE ALEUTIANS AND
AK PEN THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE SPINNING ITSELF OUT IN THE
CENTRAL BERING.

FARTHER EAST LITTLE HAPPENS BESIDES COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN BRINGS
RAINY ONSHORE FLOW INTO KODIAK FRI AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHUGACH FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER COLD
TEMPS WILL PERSIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. FOR
NOW IT LOOKS AS IF THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE ALASKA RANGE FOR ANY MUSHERS HEADED IN THAT DIRECTION NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 12A 12B 13A 13B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS FEB 05