Small Craft Advisory 164, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED FROM THE WESTERN BERING INTO THE THE WESTERN
GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS. BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE
FRONT TO SWING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
BERING SEA LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY EXPECT SHOWERS WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS WITH THIS NORTHERN PACIFIC SYSTEM AND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT.
THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT WILL DOWNSLOPE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR KODIAK BUT
PUSHES INLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE LOW WORKS
INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER INLAND LOCATIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE NORTHERN PACIFIC PARENT LOW TO BECOME STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WAVE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT IS MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THIS TIME. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL AND PUSHES INTO KODIAK TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
GULF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND
DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW TO MAKE
ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHEN THE
LOW BECOMES STACKED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 160W BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FARTHER SOUTH
WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A RESULTANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH ANY
DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES ALONG THE JET AXIS ORIENTED ALONG 140W
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC PUSHED EAST SLOWLY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR
KAMCHATKA BY MID WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 13B
         GALE 2B 3A 5A 6A 8 12A 12B 13A 14
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05