Gale Warning 259, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220710 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1010 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

UPDATED AREAS 2C 3C

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB 325 NM S OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO SITKINAK ISLAND TUE
AFTERNOON THEN INLAND AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 375 NM S
OF COLD BAY MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SE OF COLD BAY TUE
AFTERNOON AT 990 MB AND WEAKEN TO 996 MB 325 NM E OF COLD BAY WED
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-221500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
550 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1010 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS.  
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
1010 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST MON FEB 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 160W WITH MANY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO ROTATE AROUND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THESE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO SWING THE LOW SLOWLY EAST AND NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
ALASKA TO BE KNOCKED DOWN GRADUALLY WITH THESE FEATURES. THE JET
ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH CURRENTLY NEAR 150W TO SLIDE EAST WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. EACH WAVE TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST ALBEIT A
BIT FARTHER EAST EACH TIME.

A STRONG LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO PUSH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A CLOSED NEAR 45N 165W THURSDAY BUT PROGRESS EAST FASTER THAN
THE CURRENT LOW AS THE JET IS SUPPORTING THIS LOW. THE DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW TO PUSH THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW INTO THE GULF
AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE KAMCHATKA LOW THURSDAY AND SWINGS
THE WHOLE COMPLEX INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A PIECE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE TO FEED INTO THE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
TURN...A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KICKING OUT THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR 50N 160W.
THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED FRONT WORKING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT TO WORK OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WORKS NORTH THROUGH THE GULF.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA DISSIPATES. THE SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STACKED SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 50N 160W WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TOMORROW AS WELL. MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. EXPECT GALE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND THROUGH THE CHANNELED INLAND WATERS WITH THE FRONT
TOMORROW. THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
WORKS INLAND NEAR THE SHELIKOF STRAIT. THE RESULTANT OCCLUDED FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO WORK INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE BERING SEA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW TO PROGRESS NORTH INTO THE GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST.  BY THIS TIME...A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 45N 155W WITH A FRONT APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN FRONT TO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BERING SEA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OFF BY SATURDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND LOW CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND.

DOWNSLOPED AREAS OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE FRONTS
AS THEY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. BUT PRECIP CHANCE
STILL EXIST AS EACH FRONT WORKS INLAND. IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE
AN INCREASE IN WIND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM DURING EACH EVENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3C 4
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05