Small Craft Advisory 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MESOETA IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY. IT INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM
IN THE GULF BETTER WITH REGARD TO PRESSURE THAN THE UKMET OR GFS. IT
STILL SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE QPF A LITTLE STRONG ON THESE FIRST
SYSTEMS THOUGH.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
AND WINDS. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY WILL BE
GENERALLY RUN OF THE MILL ALTHOUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL SHOULD SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN A WHILE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GLENNALLEN. THE WRANGELLS COULD SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL AS THEY ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT ON WED AND WED NIGHT IS PROGGED TO BE
MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL BE THE NORM.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY IF THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REALLY DOES FINALLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE SUPPLY LIKE THE MESOETA
SHOWS. ISENTROPES ARE WELL ABOVE 300 WED NIGHT AND THU INDICATING
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST AK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE INLAND NEAR BETHEL WED NIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHCENTRAL BUT WILL
BRING ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS INTO BETHEL AND BRISTOL BAY. OTHERWISE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET IN
THE ALEUTIANS UNTIL THU EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...6A 6B 14 15
   STORMS...2B 3A 3C 5A
   GALES...2C 3B 5B 12A
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW FEB 05