Small Craft Advisory 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
500 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT I STILL PREFER THE
MESOETA SOLUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT 500 MB.
THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF ADAK WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT TO NEAR SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS EVENING WILL SWING EAST THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE.
A 980 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THIS
EVENING. A 984 MB LOW NEAR BETHEL MOVE TO NEAR ANIAK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT, I WOULD EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS TO BE STRONGER THAN
THE MODEL INDICATE. MODEL WINDS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP BIT.

A 990 MB LOW 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 120 MILES
EAST OF KODIAK CITY TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE NORTH OF VALDEZ
TUESDAY MORNING.

A 990 MB LOW 600 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK CITY
AND STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST LOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IN ANCHORAGE AND SUSITNA VALLEY.

THE SECOND LOW WILL PRODUCE MORE SNOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 2B, 3ABC, 5B, 12AB, 13AB, 14, 15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 05