Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 091301
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEWS ISLAND WILL MOVE NEAR
CAPE NEWENHAM THU MORNING AT 998 MB AND DISSIPATE. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-100300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 60 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 23 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ170-100300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-100300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 9 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MESOETA IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY. IT INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM
IN THE GULF BETTER WITH REGARD TO PRESSURE THAN THE UKMET OR GFS. IT
STILL SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE QPF A LITTLE STRONG ON THESE FIRST
SYSTEMS THOUGH.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
AND WINDS. THE FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY WILL BE
GENERALLY RUN OF THE MILL ALTHOUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL SHOULD SEE ITS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN A WHILE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GLENNALLEN. THE WRANGELLS COULD SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL AS THEY ARE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM THAT WILL HIT ON WED AND WED NIGHT IS PROGGED TO BE
MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER. STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL BE THE NORM.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY IF THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REALLY DOES FINALLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE SUPPLY LIKE THE MESOETA
SHOWS. ISENTROPES ARE WELL ABOVE 300 WED NIGHT AND THU INDICATING
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST AK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE INLAND NEAR BETHEL WED NIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHCENTRAL BUT WILL
BRING ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS INTO BETHEL AND BRISTOL BAY. OTHERWISE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET IN
THE ALEUTIANS UNTIL THU EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...6A 6B 14 15
   STORMS...2B 3A 3C 5A
   GALES...2C 3B 5B 12A
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW FEB 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AST TUE FEB 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     SNOW             ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
02/08/2005  6.2 INCH                            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN LIGHTS AND PATTERSON
            MEASURED 6.2 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 9AM.

&&

ABROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
321 PM AST TUE FEB 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     SNOW             ANCHORAGE               61.18N 149.19W
02/08/2005  5.8 INCH                            AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE ANCHORAGE NWS FORECAST OFFICE MEASURED 5.8 INCHES OF
            NEW SNOW. SNOW BEGAN AT 730AM AND MEASUREMENT WAS TAKEN
            AT 300PM. LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&

AB