Small Craft Advisory 1101, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU DEC 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

STATEWIDE UPPER LEVEL LOW TODAY WITH RIDGES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND EASTERN RUSSIA. AT THE SURFACE...3 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ARCTIC FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING. ANOTHER LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK AND YET ANOTHER IS WELL
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND THESE TWO
LOWS SOUTH OF THE GULF AND BRINGING STEADY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EDGING SOUTH INTO THE BERING...
RELATIVELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE WEST WITH SMALL CRAFT
WINDS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NEAR THE ARCTIC FRONT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE MYRIAD LOWS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE GFS HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON MERGING OF THE WESTERN LOWS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TONIGHT
AND THEN BEING ABSORBED BY THE GULF COMPLEX LATER ON FRI...AND
MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOWS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI MORNING AND
THEN SLOWLY BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS KODIAK AND TO THE AKPEN BY MON
MORNING.

IN THE EAST THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING GALES AND STORMS TO THE GULF
TONIGHT AND GALES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRI. BECAUSE OF
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MERGED GULF LOW...ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL SECTIONS
WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH RANGE. DOWNSLOPING WILL
MINIMIZE PRECIP FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THE WRANGELLS MAY SEE
SOME SNOW BLEEDING OVER FROM THE CHUGACH THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT...CAUSED BY THE COMPLEX LOW CONSOLIDATING
AND MOVING EAST. STEADY COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF THE ST. MATTHEW ISLAND ZONE...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT AT BEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
ALEUTIANS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY..ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THIS TO A MINIMUM. AS THE MERGED GULF LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AKPEN MON...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         GALES 120 130 132 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05