Gale Warning 1099, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 310018
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 958 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK REMAINS STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS
TO 972 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SOUTH OF DANGEROUS POINT...W WIND 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU DEC 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

STATEWIDE UPPER LEVEL LOW TODAY WITH RIDGES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND EASTERN RUSSIA. AT THE SURFACE...3 LOWS ARE PINWHEELING JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ARCTIC FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING. ANOTHER LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK AND YET ANOTHER IS WELL
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STREAMING AROUND THESE TWO
LOWS SOUTH OF THE GULF AND BRINGING STEADY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EDGING SOUTH INTO THE BERING...
RELATIVELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE WEST WITH SMALL CRAFT
WINDS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND NEAR THE ARCTIC FRONT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE MYRIAD LOWS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF. IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE GFS HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON MERGING OF THE WESTERN LOWS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TONIGHT
AND THEN BEING ABSORBED BY THE GULF COMPLEX LATER ON FRI...AND
MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOWS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI MORNING AND
THEN SLOWLY BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS KODIAK AND TO THE AKPEN BY MON
MORNING.

IN THE EAST THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING GALES AND STORMS TO THE GULF
TONIGHT AND GALES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRI. BECAUSE OF
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MERGED GULF LOW...ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL SECTIONS
WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH RANGE. DOWNSLOPING WILL
MINIMIZE PRECIP FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THE WRANGELLS MAY SEE
SOME SNOW BLEEDING OVER FROM THE CHUGACH THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT...CAUSED BY THE COMPLEX LOW CONSOLIDATING
AND MOVING EAST. STEADY COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF THE ST. MATTHEW ISLAND ZONE...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS WILL BE SMALL CRAFT AT BEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
ALEUTIANS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY..ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THIS TO A MINIMUM. AS THE MERGED GULF LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AKPEN MON...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         GALES 120 130 132 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05