Gale Warning 1100, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

PLANETARY UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES TO JAPAN AND
EASTERN RUSSIA TODAY. A ZONAL JET WITH A 200 KT MAX EXTENDS FROM
JAPAN TO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A DEEP LOW LIES JUST EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. A WEAK LOW IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW PREPARING TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE REST
OF THE GULF COAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
PAST COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH SOME SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHUGACH RANGE.

IN THE WEST...THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE KODIAK LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE LIMITED NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS BY DOWNSLOPING. OTHERWISE...WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY NORTH FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION INTO THE BERING
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL LOBES OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR EPISODES OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         GALES 120 130 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05