Small Craft Advisory 1089, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1100 AM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS -  ONE PERSISTANT FEATURE FOR THE LAST MONTH (MONTHS?) HAS
BEEN AN INCREDIBLE JET STREAM FROM SOUTHERN ASIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THE 250 MB JET TODAY IS OVER 200 KT FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL
TO JUST OF KSFO. THIS JET IS AIDING THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MAJOR
UPPER LOW CENTER JUST S OF DUTCH HARBOR AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW
COMPLEX OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS JUST S OF OUR GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA.
AT 12Z THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW WAS 952 MB NEAR 48N 153W. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN QUITE UNCERTAIN ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND IS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE AS PER
THE RADARS AND SATELLITE.

AER FORECASTS - EXPECT PERSISTENCE. LOOK FOR CONTINUED PRECIP ALONG
THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WE
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CHANGES
VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. SO WHAT IF THE MAJOR UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
ALOFT MOVES INTO POSITION OVER THE N PACIFIC BUT SOUTH OF 55N ON TUE?
THE MAJOR JUST REDEVELOPS S OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR A REPLAY OF
THE SAME PATTERN.

ALU FORECASTS - REST ASSURED THAT THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER LOW TO
REPLACE THAT LAST ALEUTIAN LOW. THE MODELS REMAIN CERTAIN THAT A LOW
OFF THE KURILES WILL DEEPEN TO 958 MB NEAR 45N 170E BY 06Z WED. UNTIL
THEN A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA STARTING EARLY
TUE. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED AS
FRONTS AND TRIPLE POINTS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 155 172 175 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC DEC 05