Small Craft Advisory 1086, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN DEC 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE OLD STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A COMPLEX WITH MANY CENTERS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THESE CENTERS WITH PRECISION
AND MISS THE BOAT ON A 968 LOW NEAR 52N 150W AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE VERY
PERSISTANT JET AT 200 MB HAS ADVANCED FROM SE ASIA TO KPDX WITH A
CONTINUED 200 KT CORE. THIS HAS FORCED THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AT 12Z. THIS HAS
CAUSED SE FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF BOTH HUGE FORECAST AREAS BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AER FORECASTS - ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SE FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON. ONE OF THE TRIPLE POINTS ON THE
NUMEROUS FEATURES OF THE MAJOR UPPER/SURFACE LOW COMPLEX WILL BOMB
INTO THE 950S SOMEWHERE ALONG 50N BY MON AFTERNOON. THE GFS-190 BETS
THAT IT WILL BE 956 AT 50N 150W AS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLES
WITH THE AK-ETA-12 SLIGHTLY N AND W OF THAT POSITION. AFTER THAT
WHERE DOES THE LOW GO??  BY 12Z TUE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE WIDE
FOR THE LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST
OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW IS QUITE HOPELESS BUT STRONG EASTERLY WIND
IN THE NORTHERN GULF LOOKS CERTAIN.

ALU FORECASTS - OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SW COAST IS NOT HELPING THE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ALSO DRIVING A LONG NE
FETCH ACROSS THE BERING WHICH IS CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRIBS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE CERTAIN ABOUT AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA TUE. THE MODERATE LOW S OF SHEMYA TUE
NIGHT IS ALSO HANDLED WELL SO WE CAN USE THE MODELS WITH REASONABLE
CERTAINTY FOR THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150. HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

HAPPY CHRISTMAS.
JC DEC 05