Gale Warning 1092, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 270059
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 956 MB LOW 300 NM SE OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTH 
AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED. 
$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT NE 30
KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 12
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT...EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. SEAS 10
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. SEAS 9
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS KALGIN ISLAND NORTH. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT KALGIN ISLAND
NORTH. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS KALGIN ISLAND
NORTH. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1100 AM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS -  ONE PERSISTANT FEATURE FOR THE LAST MONTH (MONTHS?) HAS
BEEN AN INCREDIBLE JET STREAM FROM SOUTHERN ASIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THE 250 MB JET TODAY IS OVER 200 KT FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL
TO JUST OF KSFO. THIS JET IS AIDING THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MAJOR
UPPER LOW CENTER JUST S OF DUTCH HARBOR AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW
COMPLEX OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS JUST S OF OUR GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA.
AT 12Z THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW WAS 952 MB NEAR 48N 153W. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN QUITE UNCERTAIN ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND IS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE AS PER
THE RADARS AND SATELLITE.

AER FORECASTS - EXPECT PERSISTENCE. LOOK FOR CONTINUED PRECIP ALONG
THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WE
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CHANGES
VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. SO WHAT IF THE MAJOR UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
ALOFT MOVES INTO POSITION OVER THE N PACIFIC BUT SOUTH OF 55N ON TUE?
THE MAJOR JUST REDEVELOPS S OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR A REPLAY OF
THE SAME PATTERN.

ALU FORECASTS - REST ASSURED THAT THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER LOW TO
REPLACE THAT LAST ALEUTIAN LOW. THE MODELS REMAIN CERTAIN THAT A LOW
OFF THE KURILES WILL DEEPEN TO 958 MB NEAR 45N 170E BY 06Z WED. UNTIL
THEN A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA STARTING EARLY
TUE. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED AS
FRONTS AND TRIPLE POINTS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 155 172 175 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC DEC 05