Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...

500 MB HIGH IS THROUGH THE BERING STRAITS WITH STRONG UPPER LOW
PERSISTING NEAR 50N 165W. MAJOR SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER
OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA...ACROSS YUKON ALASKA BORDER...THROUGH GULF
OF ALASKA. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED VICINITY OF YAKUTAT. NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA...THE INTERIOR...AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. POLAR JET DISPLACED
TO SOUTH SIDE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW. NEXT IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW...CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY JET THAT SHOULD CARRY IT TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE.

BOTH THE MESOETA AND THE GFS CORRECTLY INITIALIZED MAIN FEATURES
NOTED ABOVE. GFS IS ABOUT 4 MBS DEEPER ON THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BUT
ONLY 1 MB DIFFERENT ON CENTRAL PRESSURE OF GULF OF ALASKA LOW. MODELS
DIVERGE SHORTLY INTO THE RUN. THEY BOTH DEEPEN THE NEW LOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE OLDER STATIONARY LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MESOETA
DOES ALOT MORE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS...MOVING LOW TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND DEEPENING IT BY AN ADDITIONAL 5 MBS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION MUCH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS. GIVEN THE 2
TO 1 MAJORITY...AND THE FACT THAT THE ALLEGED BOMB DEVELOPS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OF THE MESOETA DOMAIN...WE FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE MESETA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS IS MOOT TO THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS....AND INDEED WILL ONLY BE OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...135.
MARINE...GALES...2B1 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...2B1 SC4 4 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

STM JAN 05