Gale Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 010103 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

CORRECTED AREA 5B AND 14 HEADLINES
 
MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A COMPLEX 973 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY TO 950 MB AS IT MOVES TO 350 NM WEST OF SHEMYA LATE WED
MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TO THE SEA OF
OKHOTSK LATE WED. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  
CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-010300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-010300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-010300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-010300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-010300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUE NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...GALE WARNING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ185-010300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEA IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-010300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...

500 MB HIGH IS THROUGH THE BERING STRAITS WITH STRONG UPPER LOW
PERSISTING NEAR 50N 165W. MAJOR SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER
OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA...ACROSS YUKON ALASKA BORDER...THROUGH GULF
OF ALASKA. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED VICINITY OF YAKUTAT. NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA...THE INTERIOR...AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. POLAR JET DISPLACED
TO SOUTH SIDE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW. NEXT IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW...CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY JET THAT SHOULD CARRY IT TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE.

BOTH THE MESOETA AND THE GFS CORRECTLY INITIALIZED MAIN FEATURES
NOTED ABOVE. GFS IS ABOUT 4 MBS DEEPER ON THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BUT
ONLY 1 MB DIFFERENT ON CENTRAL PRESSURE OF GULF OF ALASKA LOW. MODELS
DIVERGE SHORTLY INTO THE RUN. THEY BOTH DEEPEN THE NEW LOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE OLDER STATIONARY LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MESOETA
DOES ALOT MORE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS...MOVING LOW TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND DEEPENING IT BY AN ADDITIONAL 5 MBS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION MUCH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS. GIVEN THE 2
TO 1 MAJORITY...AND THE FACT THAT THE ALLEGED BOMB DEVELOPS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OF THE MESOETA DOMAIN...WE FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE MESETA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS IS MOOT TO THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS....AND INDEED WILL ONLY BE OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...135.
MARINE...GALES...2B1 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...2B1 SC4 4 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

STM JAN 05