Gale Warning 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 311923 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1000 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

AMENDED AREAS 3A 3B 3C

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
80 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 991 MB TUESDAY MORNING AND TO 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA AT 1002 MB WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-010300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT FROM THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-010300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-010300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT FROM BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT FROM BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-010300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-010300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1000 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-010300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1000 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-010300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
1000 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-010300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUE...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-010300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010003
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA WEAKENS TO 1007 MB WED
MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION.

$$

PKZ120-011500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 55 KT
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 15 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.

$$

PKZ141-011500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500 MB...LONG WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTERS OVER THE NORTH TERRITORIES
OF CANADA TO A 5090M CENTER SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN MOST CENTER MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF
TODAY GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SW FLOW TO NORTH. SOUTHERN MOST CENTER
BECOMES CUT-OFF AND WEAKENS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BROAD CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF JAPAN WILL ACT AS THE ANCHOR FOR SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS/WESTERN BERING SEA.

SURFACE...
AER..12Z SURFACE/SAT DATA SUPPORTS THE GFS/UKMET MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS WITH DEVELOPING 980S LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF.
THE ETA/MESO ETA INITIALIZATIONS WHERE MUCH FURTHER EAST...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST TRENDS AND WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS AFTERNOONS
FORECAST PACKAGES. LOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFY INTO THE 970S OVER
THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH GAPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
(COPPER RIVER DELTA, THOMPSON PASS, MATANUSKA) AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SAT PICTURE SHOWS DRYING CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE KENAI PEN. SUSPECT DRYING SHOULD SPREAD
TO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND THE NORTH GULF LATER MON AND TUE.

OUT WEST...968MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS STACKED WITH THE UPPER
CENTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN PLACE. SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AK
PEN AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH TUE. GENERAL LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MON. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE
KAMCHATKA PEN WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC JAN 05