Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST WED JUL 14 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL KEEP A
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND INCREASE RAINFALL AS IT TAPS INTO MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
BLAS SOUTHWEST OF BAJA. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE
SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SOUTH AND CLOSES
OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE EVOLVING NICELY ACROSS THE REGION AS
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS...EVEN WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE TO HELP IN
DESTABILIZATION...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN
COCHISE COUNTY (WHERE A COUPLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN POSTED) THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
EXCEPT FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WHERE THEY HAVE HAD FULL
INSOLATION TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LESS SHEAR...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES ARE THE BEST AREAS TO SEE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED MOVEMENT WEST OVERNIGHT.
WITH MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING. IN COORDINATION WITH EL PASO AND PHOENIX OFFICES...HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...EXCEPT FOR
THE WHITES...UNTIL 10 PM...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT...THUS THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THERE UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z 30 KM MM5 RUN HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ON PICKING OUT WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS HAVE OCCURRED AND IS REALLY HITTING THE WESTERN COCHISE...
EASTERN PIMA/PINAL AND GRAHAM COUNTY REALLY HARD FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE MOUNT GRAHAM BURN AREA...WHERE
THE MM5 IS FORECASTING BETWEEN 2-3 OF RAIN TONIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE SHOWS A SLOW DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY AS
EACH DAY GOES BY. THIS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH OVER COLORADO MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND REORIENTATING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...I
CANT SEE THE AREA GETTING OUT OF A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON TYPE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS. THE MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY INVOLVES THE BURN AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL HAS RISEN DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONES ERN 29/30/33/34/35 UNTIL 10 PM
 MST TONIGHT.
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUBLIC ZONES WRN 29/31/32 FROM 6 PM MST
 TONIGHT UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY MORNING.

JRG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1154 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-150700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
1154 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 200 PM UNTIL 1000 PM...

SYNOPSIS...THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT WHERE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED NORTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALMOST DOUBLE THE NORMAL LEVEL FOR MID JULY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ALSO SHOWED AN INCREASE IN EAST WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
CAUSING THE INITIAL STORMS TO TRAIN. ALL OF THIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. THE LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD KEEP STORM UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT
THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND EXCESSIVE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHIFTS INTO NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL REDUCE EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND WILL CAUSE
SOME WARMING ALOFT.  AN UPSWING IS THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AGAIN TRIES TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-150700-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1154 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 600 PM UNTIL 300 AM...

SYNOPSIS...THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT WHERE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED NORTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALMOST DOUBLE THE NORMAL LEVEL FOR MID JULY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ALSO SHOWED AN INCREASE IN EAST WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
CAUSING THE INITIAL STORMS TO TRAIN. ALL OF THIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS A
POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. THE LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD KEEP STORM UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG...BUT
THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND EXCESSIVE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD CAUSE A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SHIFTS INTO NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL REDUCE EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND WILL CAUSE
SOME WARMING ALOFT.  AN UPSWING IS THEN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AGAIN TRIES TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK