Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
PENINSULA SHOWING SE FLOW BEGINNING TO DEEPEN. SO EXPECT AFTERNOON
W COAST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE BACK
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. SO HAVE INCREASED EVENING POPS TO SCT WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE TEMPS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS DROP TO CLIMO SO AM LEANING CLOSER TO MET LOWS.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH FAIR AGREEMENT OF THE PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TO SINK SOUTH AS GULF TUTT MOVES
INTO NE GULF THEN OVER N FL MON/TUE. SFC/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
JUST N OF THE BAY AREA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SE FLOW. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FROM BAY AREA S...SHOWING SE FLOW
THRU AT LEAST 10K FT IN MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH TUTT ENERGY
COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS EXPECT MORE
COVERAGE IN PRECIP MON/TUE. THIS FLOW PATTERN TYPICALLY PRODUCES MORE
ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA FROM AROUND THE BAY SOUTHWARD...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON TO SCT LATE EVENING. TEMP NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUN)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT...SO HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT 40% POPS FOR ALL ZONES. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES UNDER A DEEP
SELY WIND FLOW...AND WILL DEPICT 50% POPS.

DURING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE
RIDGE POSITION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TYPICAL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW REGIME FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO-LEVELS
(50%) ACROSS THE BOARD. MAX TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS KEEPING WINDS
AND SEAS LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WX...PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE IN PLACE KEEPING MIN RH ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 76 91 / 40 60 40 60
FMY 74 92 74 92 / 40 60 40 60
GIF 74 92 74 92 / 30 50 40 60
SRQ 73 90 73 90 / 40 60 40 60
BKV 70 91 71 91 / 20 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RD/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
519 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271416-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
519 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM OVER LAND ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHILE THE AREA FROM TAMPA BAY TO FORT MYERS
WILL SEE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SELF ACTIVATE TODAY WHENEVER THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME THREATENING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

FLZ052-056-057-271930-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FROSTPROOF...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT FORT
MEADE...FROSTPROOF...AND WAUCHULLA UNTIL 330 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.