Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 973
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2004, 12:54 PM MDT for 9 counties in Colorado; 8 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2004, 12:54 PM MDT (18:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2004, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties
Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Chase County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2494 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
993 ACUS11 KWNS 291855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291854 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291854Z - 292130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NEAR TERM... BUT ONE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF DENVER. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOCUSED AHEAD OF BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVENTUALLY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AS HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39250386 39790470 40660360 40250273 40900171 40750036 39680032 38660090 38140250 38390380
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2:55 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Yuma | 6 hr |
| May 29, 12:02 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellsworth, Graham, Jewell and 14 more | 118 min |
| May 29, 1:55 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 20 more | 7 hr |
| May 29, 2:05 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 24 more | 7 hr |
| May 29, 3:35 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson and 5 more | 5 hr |
| May 29, 3:57 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Pratt, Reno and 3 more | 63 min |
| May 29, 4:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington | 59 min |
| May 29, 4:53 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman, Thomas and 1 more | 67 min |
| May 28, 6:31 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Burt, Cedar, Colfax and 20 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 8:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Boyd, Burt, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming and 12 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 8:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dakota | 5 hr |
| May 29, 11:42 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Thurston | 93 min |
| May 29, 1:05 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Boyd, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Holt, Knox and 2 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 4:01 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Boyd, Cedar, Dakota, Dixon, Holt and 3 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.