Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 641

May 10, 20045 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2004, 7:06 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2004, 7:06 PM MDT (01:06 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2004, 9:00 PM MDT
In force: 114 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 36 counties

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Powder River County, MT, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Garden County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Custer County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Lawrence County, SD, Campbell County, WY, Converse County, WY, Crook County, WY, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY, Niobrara County, WY, Platte County, WY, Sheridan County, WY, Weston County, WY

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 206 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 620 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

568 
ACUS11 KWNS 110107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110106 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT INTO NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179...

VALID 110106Z - 110300Z

NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION TIME.

WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS...NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/
WYOMING FRONT RANGE.  AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...SLOW VEERING OF MID/UPPER FLOW ALONG/EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 06Z.  AS DEEP SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING...
RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. 

RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SUPERCELL EAST OF DOUGLAS WY...AND
SUPERCELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER CO MAY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES WEST OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

45760744 45790602 45300455 44240358 42760244 41900214
40470193 38250299 38750403 40970479 42270533 43030560
44120652 44930725 45370745

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 7:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and 6 more	5 hr
May 10, 9:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Sedgwick	4 hr
May 11, 1:00 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Prowers	2 hr
May 11, 1:40 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baca, Prowers	6 hr
May 10, 9:19 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Fallon, Powder River	116 min
May 10, 9:53 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dawson, Garfield, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt	2 hr
May 11, 12:27 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arthur, Brown, Cherry, Grant, Hooker, Keya Paha and 3 more	63 min
May 11, 12:32 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherry, Dawes, Sheridan	118 min
May 11, 12:55 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arthur, Cherry, Garden, Grant, Hooker, Keith and 4 more	5 hr
May 11, 4:04 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherry, Grant, Hooker, Keya Paha	116 min
May 11, 4:20 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Frontier, Hayes, Hitchcock, Lincoln, Red Willow	115 min
May 11, 5:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Antelope, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Holt, Keya Paha and 5 more	6 hr
May 11, 2:55 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beadle, Brown, Clark, Codington, Day, Deuel and 10 more	5 hr
May 11, 4:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Day, Edmunds, McPherson, Marshall, Roberts	113 min
May 11, 5:53 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clark and 18 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.