Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 52

January 27, 20048 counties in Ohio; 13 counties in Pennsylvania; Brooke County, Hancock County, Ohio County, West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 27, 2004, 7:40 AM EST for 8 counties in Ohio; 13 counties in Pennsylvania; Brooke County, Hancock County, Ohio County, West Virginia. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 27, 2004, 7:40 AM EST (12:40 UTC)
Expired: Jan 27, 2004, 11:15 AM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 24 counties

Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Portage County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Ohio County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 610 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 230 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 318 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

713 
ACUS11 KWNS 271241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271240 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-271615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OH AND WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 271240Z - 271615Z

100-125 NM WIDE BROKEN BAND OF PRECIP -- CONTAINING SCATTERED
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS -- WILL MOVE NEWD 30-35 KT
ACROSS REGION TROUGH 15Z.  E OF SFC FREEZING LINE TO NEAR AN LBE-ERI
LINE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN RATES .1-.25 INCH HOUR AND
LOCALIZED/BRIEF CORES WITH .5 INCH/HOUR RATES. 

12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE MGW 15 S HLG 30 S CAK 40 NNW
YNG.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES TO
SHIFT FREEZING ISOTHERM NEWD 15-20 KT -- BUT NOT AS FAST AS MOVEMENT
OF PRECIP PLUME.  RESULT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN OVER
NRN WV PANHANDLE AND OVER ERN OH...EXCEPT EXTREME ERN OH COUNTIES
BORDERING PA.  IN PA FROM PIT NWD...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN FREEZING
RAIN FROM 1330-14Z ONSET THROUGH AROUND 1530-16Z.  LOW LEVEL WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45 KT LLJ WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...AND HORIZONTALLY AHEAD OF
PRECIP PLUME.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 50 J/KG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR SFC
ICING WITH 2500-4000 FT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE ARCTIC SFC
AIR.

..EDWARDS.. 01/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

39918019 39968080 40558132 41628126 41888067 42247983
41697951 40707925 39777953

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 27, 3:08 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Auglaize, Darke, Defiance, Fulton, Hancock and 8 more	5 hr
Jan 27, 3:36 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Trumbull	4 hr
Jan 27, 10:01 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre and 23 more	4 hr
Jan 27, 5:28 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berks, Bradford, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Columbia and 17 more	5 hr
Jan 27, 7:27 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Grant, Greenbrier, Hardy, Mercer, Monroe, Pendleton and 2 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.