Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 49

January 27, 200425 counties in Indiana; 21 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 27, 2004, 3:08 AM EST for 25 counties in Indiana; 21 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 27, 2004, 3:08 AM EST (08:08 UTC)
Expired: Jan 27, 2004, 7:45 AM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 60 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Henry County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 19 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 334 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 432 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 505 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

204 
ACUS11 KWNS 270808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270808 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-271245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA/OHIO BORDER REGION...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 270808Z - 271245Z

BAND OF FREEZING RAIN -- LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE -- IS
FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS MIE/FWA/TOL AREAS THROUGH 10Z AND OVER
PORTIONS SERN MI -- INCLUDING DTW/ARB METRO AREA -- DURING 10Z-12Z
TIME FRAME.  SFC ICING RATES WILL VARY WIDELY...BUT BECAUSE OF
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TSTMS...MAY BRIEFLY REACH .75-1 INCH/HOUR
RANGE IN CORES.  RATES OF .10-.25 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON. FREEZING
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET WITH NWWD EXTENT TOWARD AN IND-BTL-MBS
AXIS DURING SAME PERIOD.  SLEET RATES SHOULD VARY FROM .25-.75
INCH/HOUR..THUNDER BEING LESS PROBABLE THAN IN FREEZING RAIN
CORRIDOR.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 7Z SHOWS FREEZING LINE 50 S BMG 25 N DAY 20 E FDY 20
S DTW THEN EWD ACROSS LE.  WEAK SFC WAA AND ELY/NELY FLOW FROM LE
MAY CAUSE FREEZING LINE TO DRIFT WWD SLIGHTLY ACROSS NWRN OH AND
MONROE COUNTY MI.  OTHERWISE...HOWEVER...OFFSETTING EFFECTS OF SFC
WAA...EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX FROM FALLING
LIQUID PRECIP SHOULD KEEP FREEZING LINE QUASISTATIONARY.  FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING AND STRONG LARGE
SCALE DPVA -- THAT HAS SUPPORTED CONVECTIVE PRECIP PLUME OVER SRN
INDIANA -- WILL MAINTAIN THIS PRECIP AREA AS IT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY RUC/ETA
PRECIP/UVV FIELDS AND TRACK OF MAX 291K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN RUC. 
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 3-5 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE SFC
SUPPORTING RAIN PRODUCTION BEFORE DESCENT INTO SHALLOW SUBFREEZING
SFC LAYER.  LATTER LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH WWD EXTENT ENCOURAGING
TRANSITION TO SLEET.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG POSSIBLE ABOVE
SFC FREEZING LINE...DECREASING TO BELOW 50 J/KG OR LESS IN SLEET
AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 01/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...CLE...ILN...

39988599 39788585 40008647 40568680 42048611 43568408
43658259 42988242 43008263 41318517 40408580 40028598 

39828490 39718563 40258612 41618537 43238281 42918245
42638251 42498265 42378283 42358303 42258308 42148312
42018315 42018340 41888359 41618350 41148352 40808365
39978460

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 26, 11:15 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 26 more	3 hr
Jan 27, 3:36 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Trumbull	4 hr
Jan 27, 7:40 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning and 2 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.