Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 37

January 25, 20045 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 25, 2004, 6:06 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 25, 2004, 6:06 PM EST (23:06 UTC)
Expired: Jan 25, 2004, 10:30 PM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 94 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Noble County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greene County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Preston County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wetzel County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1426 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 252306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252306 
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-260330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...D.C. METRO AREA...NRN/ERN VA...MD...NRN WV...SWRN
PA...FAR E-CENTRAL OH

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 252306Z - 260330Z

BROAD REGION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS ERN
OH/SWRN PA/MD/DC/NRN VA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

AT 25/23Z...MID-LEVEL VORT CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES NEWD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS NERN
CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AND IS NOW
SLOWLY FILLING ALONG STRONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN N-MIDDLE TN
AT 1001 MB. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...AMPLE WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NEWD ABOVE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH 26/09Z...PROVIDED BY SWLY 700MB FLOW OF 60-65KT
PRESENT ON ATL/GSP VAD PROFILES. ETA PROJECTS 700MB TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION MAXIMIZED IN A NW-SE BAND FROM SWRN PA TO THE SRN DELMARVA
PENINSULA BETWEEN 26/03 AND 26/06Z. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD AND
BECOME HEAVY IN D.C. METRO AREA DURING THIS PERIOD /1/HR RATES
POSSIBLE 3-7Z/. SNOW IS MAINTAINED IN D.C. THROUGH 9Z WHEN ETA MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET...AND LESSENING UVV. IN RIC
AREA...SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH 03-04Z. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE EVOLUTION
OF DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SWRN VA/SWRN WV
AT 23Z. PRESENT TRENDS TAKE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO E-CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 00-02Z...SOUTH OF D.C. METRO
REGION...WHICH MAY LESSEN PRECIP RATES IN CENTRAL/ERN VA.

ELSEWHERE...CONTINUED STRONG E-W DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF VORT
TRACK WILL DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOW FROM E-CENTRAL OH INTO THE NRN WV PANHANDLE AND SWRN PA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HEAVY SNOW CURRENT IN CMH
VICINITY SUGGEST 1/HR RATES POSSIBLE AS STRONGEST FORCING
PROPAGATES EWD THROUGH SERN OH/NRN WV/AND SWRN PA DURING THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS. SOME MIX OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ZZV/PKB/HLG STARTING 5-7Z
WITH WARMING IN 850-800MB LAYER.

..BANACOS.. 01/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

37007683 38127829 38717893 39258074 39838180 40828115
40217830 39797751 39307678 38597608 38237592 37917586
37467579

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 25, 12:07 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Athens, Brown, Clark, Clermont, Clinton and 20 more	4 hr
Jan 25, 6:58 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Buchanan, Dickenson, Grayson, Russell, Scott, Smyth and 6 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.