Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 35

January 25, 20044 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 25, 2004, 12:07 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 25, 2004, 12:07 PM EST (17:07 UTC)
Expired
Jan 25, 2004, 4:30 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 176 counties

Alamance County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Brown County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King William County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Mason County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 25 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-01-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2004-01-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 153 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
693 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 251707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251707 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL OH...WV...VA...AND N-CENTRAL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 251707Z - 252130Z

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SPREADING NEWD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKELY. 

STRONG 500MB VORT NEAR MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT 1630Z WILL CONTINUE
NEWD INTO OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 26/00Z. LEADING EDGE OF STRONG
700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT NEWD SPREADING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
THEN MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN OH/WV. EAST OF
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...DAMMING WITH SRN EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER ACROSS MOST ALL OF INTERIOR
NC/VA THROUGH 26/00Z.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO SRN OH MUCH OF WV THROUGH 20Z...WITH A CHANGE
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH DEVELOPING WARM LAYER
ALOFT...REACHING ILN-CRW LINE AROUND 21Z. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MOVING
NEWD ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY WILL LIKELY
LESSEN PRECIPITATION RATES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS REGION
FOLLOWING INITIAL BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EAST OF APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...ALL SNOW IS LIKELY FROM CHO NORTH AND EAST AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS THROUGH 00Z BASED ON ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z RUN. SNOW
TO SLEET APPEARS LIKELY IN ROA/LYH REGION BETWEEN 21-00Z. 

IN N-CENTRAL AND ERN NC...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY
LARGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREVAILING ARCTIC AIR. A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO THE NC COAST GIVEN STRONG DIABATIC
COOLING AS PRECIP STARTS. MORE SIGNIFICANT SLEET OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN INTO
N-CENTRAL NC WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH 00Z IN FAY/RDU/RWI REGION. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY REACH
0.1-0.2/HR ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 20-00Z IF ENOUGH WARMING CAN
OCCUR ALOFT TO CHANGE PRECIP FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT
TIME.

..BANACOS.. 01/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

35937572 35437576 34487772 35257892 36397991 37398073
38318176 38798368 39188469 39978395 39628091 38347733

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 25, 6:58 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Avery, Burke and 24 more6 hr
Jan 25, 6:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBelmont, Carroll, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe and 1 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.