Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 32

January 25, 20045 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 25, 2004, 6:58 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 25, 2004, 6:58 AM EST (11:58 UTC)
Expired: Jan 25, 2004, 1:00 PM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 69 counties

Knott County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Polk County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC, Carter County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Buchanan County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1792 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

386 
ACUS11 KWNS 251158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251158 
SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-251800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC...WRN NC...NERN TN/SERN KY AND SWRN
VA/SRN WV

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 251158Z - 251800Z

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 25/13Z AND 25/16Z. HOURLY LIQUID ACCUMULATION
RATES AROUND 0.10 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN SC/WRN
NC AND FAR NERN TN.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWPS WAS AIDING IN
RAPID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OVER MUCH OF GA. FARTHER
NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS
SUPPORTING HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM 0.10 TO 0.20 IN. OVER
MUCH OF TN INTO SRN/WRN KY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION
ATOP THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT
REGION FROM THE SW OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. A VERY COLD AIRMASS
RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN PA. NEAR SFC DRY AIR/COLD
ADVECTION ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE IN SC AND WRN NC. SEVERAL TENS OF
MILES NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE...A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN FROM THE PIEDMONT/UPPER COASTAL PLAINS OF SC NWWD INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN TN AND SERN KY.JUST NE OF THIS REGION FROM
SCENTRAL/SWRN NC NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SRN WV...EXPECT A
MIX OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER GETS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR
THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE BY 25/18Z BASED ON RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IS FROM 20 E OF JKL TO 25 N OF FLO. WITH THE ESTIMATED
SLEET/SNOW LINE ROUGHLY FROM  RDU TO BKW.

..CROSBIE.. 01/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...

33837951 33578044 33618130 34338201 35168206 35868270
37508327 37258146 35467973

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 24, 8:22 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, McCracken	4 hr
Jan 25, 1:27 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Breckinridge and 48 more	6 hr
Jan 25, 12:07 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chatham and 36 more	4 hr
Jan 25, 6:06 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex and 40 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.