Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 367

April 18, 200438 counties in Minnesota; Bayfield County, Burnett County, Douglas County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 18, 2004, 12:39 PM CDT for 38 counties in Minnesota; Bayfield County, Burnett County, Douglas County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 18, 2004, 12:39 PM CDT (17:39 UTC)
Expired
Apr 18, 2004, 2:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Cook County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lake County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wright County, MN, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2004-04-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 680 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2004-04-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 361 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
680 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-274 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
361 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
401 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

252 
ACUS11 KWNS 181740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181739 
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181739Z - 181945Z

POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD...EAST
OF ABR...WITH VERY STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CNTRL MN.
MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100KT
500MB WIND MAX WAS RACING NEWD FROM ERN CO/WRN NE AND WILL AID RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS INFLOW AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT INTENSIFIES. THIS ACTIVITY...SPREADING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUXTAPOSED 8-9 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
NWD/NEWD...AND EXIT REGION OF POWERFUL MID/UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE
WARM SECTOR... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION AND RAPID ELIMINATION OF THE CAP SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. FCST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MN SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT DISCRETE... POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC...STORMS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 04/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

47189533 48499250 48059011 46499087 45859226 45099278
44719366 44889624 45519669 46309653

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 17, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlue Earth, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston and 7 more5 hr
Apr 17, 9:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston and 7 more119 min
Apr 17, 10:05 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBlue Earth, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston and 7 more5 hr
Apr 17, 11:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Grant, Jackson, Kandiyohi and 14 more95 min
Apr 17, 11:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Jackson, Kandiyohi and 16 more5 hr
Apr 17, 11:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Houston and 7 more85 min
Apr 18, 12:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin and 11 more5 hr
Apr 18, 2:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Brown, Carlton and 40 more53 min
Apr 18, 4:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chisago, Crow Wing and 15 more32 min
Apr 18, 8:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Benton, Carlton, Cass, Crow Wing, Douglas and 6 more86 min
Apr 18, 1:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Chippewa and 32 more6 hr
Apr 18, 2:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLincoln, Lyon, Pipestone, Rock6 hr
Apr 18, 3:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Chisago, Crow Wing and 12 more117 min
Apr 18, 4:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Cottonwood, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore and 15 more60 min
Apr 18, 4:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBlue Earth, Cottonwood, Dodge, Faribault, Freeborn, Jackson and 6 more5 hr
Apr 18, 5:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLincoln, Lyon, Pipestone, Rock2 hr
Apr 18, 6:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Carver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur and 7 more5 hr
Apr 18, 1:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green and 11 more56 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.